Honda logo is seen near the car showroom in Krakow, Poland on February, 12 2020. (Photo by Jakub ... [+]
NurPhoto via Getty ImagesYes, Honda Motors’ stock (NYSE: HMC) is expected to sail over a Covid recession with the price falling around 8% since the beginning of the year. The automotive industry is rattled, and Honda is no exception. A Covid recession will impact the company’s revenues, cash flows, and ability to pay dividends. Fading consumer demand, reduced discretionary spending, and stay-at-home orders, will result in minimal demand for automobiles.
Trefis analyzes the potential Impact Of The Covid-19 Recession On Honda Motors with a focus on the company’s liquidity reserves and concludes that Honda has a steady financial position and a Covid-19 recession will not have a major impact on the company’s cash reserves in the near term.
Impact On Honda Motors’ Revenues
- If the outbreak of the virus increases, Honda Motors’ automobiles, motorcycles, and power products will see a low demand until the situation improves. As a result, Honda Motors’ revenues could decline by about 30% in FY’21 (FY ends in March), on account of weaker demand, potential supply constraints, and a reduction in discretionary spending.
- In addition to that, the company derives nearly 55% of its revenues from North America, which has become the epicenter of the outbreak with the US recording the largest numbers of Covid-19 cases across the globe.
Impact On Honda Motors Cash Flows
- Honda Motors’ cash flows are likely to plunge in FY2021 due to a steep fall in revenues and reduced profitability.
- The company will have to offer its products at a discount to keep the cash flowing.
- Elevated costs, coupled with lower revenues, will hurt the company’s bottom line.
- Despite these measures, we estimate that Free cash flow from operations will go down from $9.1 billion (¥979 billion) in FY2020 to $6.4 billion (¥689 billion) in FY2021. Also, with expected capital expenditures of $3.9 billion (¥423 billion) for the year, FCFO-CapEx will be $2.5 billion (¥266 billion) in FY2021.
Cash Balance Impact
- This will lead to a 2021 cash balance of $27.3 billion (¥2,950 billion), which is higher when compared to FY2020.
- This is with the assumption that the company will not pay dividends or re-purchase shares. While that may be a disappointment for existing investors, these moves by the company will be essential for its long-term survival.
Conclusion
To sum things up, Honda Motors can weather a recession through early Q2 2021 and a 30% decline in revenues by cutting Capex, eliminating share repurchases, and suspending dividends.
Our dashboard forecasting US Covid-19 cases with cross-country comparisons analyzes expected recovery time-frames and possible spread of the virus.
Further, our dashboard -28% Coronavirus crash vs. 4 Historic crashes builds a complete macro picture. Additionally, the complete set of coronavirus impact and timing analyses is available here.
An alternative scenario for Honda Motors’ cash flows with a 50% decline in revenue instead is detailed as a part of our full analysis.
While Honda seems to be in a relatively comfortable position to sail through the Covid crisis, which S&P 500 component stocks have the best chance of outperforming the benchmark index? Our 5 In the S&P 500 That’ll Beat The Index: TWTR, ISRG, NFLX, NOW, V look promising.
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The Link LonkJuly 20, 2020 at 06:30PM
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Honda To Sail Over A Covid Recession? - Forbes
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